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【校友動(dòng)態(tài)】國發(fā)院校友徐軼青榮獲2018年《政治分析》雜志年度最佳論文獎——米勒獎

發(fā)布日期：2017-12-28 04:00    來(lái)源：北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院

近日，國家發(fā)展研究院2007級校友徐軼青以其論文"Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models"榮獲2018年《政治分析》雜志年度最佳論文獎——米勒獎。

此前，徐軼青的這篇論文已獲得《政治分析》雜志的年度“編輯推薦獎”。這篇論文將計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)家白聚山老師的工作引入到因果推斷的框架內，拓展了經(jīng)濟學(xué)家常用的倍差法（Difference-in-Differences）。這個(gè)想法引起包括Guido Imbens和Susan Athey等經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的注意，他們近期在此基礎上做了進(jìn)一步拓展。

 

作者簡(jiǎn)介：

徐軼青，2007年-2010年就讀于北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院，獲經(jīng)濟學(xué)碩士，指導教師是姚洋。畢業(yè)后，赴美國麻省理工學(xué)院、哈佛大學(xué)和斯坦福大學(xué)等大學(xué)求學(xué)深造。

 

獲獎通知：

 

 

Dear Members of PolMeth

On behalf of this year's Miller Prize Committee (Jennifer Pan, Pablo Barberá, and Jonathan Katz, any myself (recused)), I am pleased to announce that the 2018 Miller Prize for the best work appearing in Political Analysis (in 2017) was awarded to Yiqing Xu for his article entitled "Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models” (https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2016.2). Please join me in congratulating Xu on this honor. The award citation is pasted below. Thank you to the committee for their work on this.

Time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data is widely used in the social sciences to examine the impacts of policies and events on aggregate units such as states, schools, or firms. Commonly researchers employ a difference-in-differences framework that simply assumes away the presence of time-varying confounds by imposing a parallel trends assumption. However, since units are heterogeneous and often follow their own trends this parallel trends assumption is unrealistic in many social science settings, leading to invalid inferences. Xu’s Political Analysis article “Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models” makes an important contribution that advances the methodology for causal inference with TSCS data. It provides researchers with a flexible estimator that constructs more plausible counterfactual trends by generalizing the synthetic control method and combining it with interactive fixed effects. Xu’s method allows for time-varying confounds and contains the often used two-way fixed effects model as a special case. Xu's estimator is widely applicable and provides a unique contribution that highlights how political methodology can contribute to exporting methodological advances to other disciplines.


Happy holidays!

Best,
Jens

 

背景介紹：

《政治分析》（Political Analysis）是政治學(xué)方法論領(lǐng)域的頂級期刊，在所有政治學(xué)英文期刊中，引用率第一。

米勒獎是《政治分析》雜志的年度最佳論文獎。前幾屆的米勒獎獲獎?wù)撐脑谡螌W(xué)領(lǐng)域都產(chǎn)生了較大的影響。詳細介紹可點(diǎn)擊文末“閱讀原文”進(jìn)入米勒獎網(wǎng)站查看。