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微觀(guān)理論workshop：Persuading While Learning

發(fā)布日期：2024-06-26 12:00    來(lái)源：

時(shí)間：6月26日（周三）10:30 a.m.-12:00

地點(diǎn)：北京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院302

主講人：施賢文（多倫多大學(xué)教授）

主持老師：吳澤南，石凡奇（經(jīng)院）；胡岠（國發(fā)院）

參與老師：胡濤，吳澤南，石凡奇（經(jīng)院）；汪浩，胡岠，邢亦青（國發(fā)院）；翁翕，劉爍（光華）

題目: Persuading While Learning

摘要：We introduce a dynamic persuasion model with a long-lived sender and a sequence of short-lived receivers. All players share a common prior belief about a persistent underlying state which is either good or bad. The sender receives information over time and can commit to a dynamic revelation policy at the beginning. In each period, the sender privately receives a noisy signal about the state and reveals a potentially garbled signal to the short-lived receiver who arrives in this period. The short-lived receiver observes all information revealed by the seller in the past and update their belief about the state being good. If their belief is above a fixed cutoff they act; otherwise they do not act. The sender would like to induce as many receivers to act as possible and values early actions more than later actions. To characterize the optimal policy, we introduce a new class of Markov martingales, so-called “Blackwell order preserving martingales,” which have the property that the Blackwell information order is preserved by the associated probability kernel. All belief martingales generated by conditionally independent signals are Blackwell martingales. We prove that, if the seller’s sequence of private information can be summarized by a Blackwell order preserving martingale, then the optimal policy must persuade an interval of beliefs surrounding the cutoff for action. We apply this characterization to show that, if the sender is sufficiently impatient and receives information according to a random walk, then full transparency is approximately optimal.

主講人介紹：Xianwen Shi is a Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto. He is an expert in mechanism design and information design, known for his work on mechanism design without transfers, with limited commitment, with endogenous information acquisition, or with endogenous information disclosure, as well as for his work on contest design. He has published papers on leading economic journals such as American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, and Review of Economic Studies. His current research focuses on information disclosure and manipulation in strategic dynamic contexts.

 


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