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關(guān)于家庭和居住安排的預測/分析以及在健康老齡化和可持續發(fā)展研究中的應用

發(fā)布日期：2024-05-09 12:00    來(lái)源：

【國際會(huì )議預告】關(guān)于家庭和居住安排的預測/分析以及在健康老齡化和可持續發(fā)展研究中的應用（5月9-10日）

中國的家庭戶(hù)數量和結構正隨著(zhù)人口快速老化而發(fā)生巨大變化，因此，家庭和居住安排的預測分析變得尤為重要。生育、結婚、離婚、同居、同居解體、遷移和子女離家等人口要素變化將帶來(lái)不同類(lèi)型和規模家庭戶(hù)（例如，空巢老人家庭戶(hù)、有同時(shí)肩負照料老人和撫養孩子重任的中年人的家庭戶(hù)，等等），在家戶(hù)數量和比例上都有重大變化，從而引申出一系列家庭人口社會(huì )經(jīng)濟、健康老齡化和可持續發(fā)展相關(guān)問(wèn)題。就這些議題的現狀和未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢的分析和預測，對中國和世界各國應對人口老化的嚴峻挑戰，進(jìn)行科學(xué)決策具有重大現實(shí)意義。

本次會(huì )議由來(lái)自中國、新加坡、荷蘭、美國、新西蘭、泰國、印度尼西亞、巴基斯坦、越南、伊朗、巴西等國家的學(xué)者做30多個(gè)學(xué)術(shù)報告，涉及議題包括家庭和居住安排的過(guò)去趨勢和現狀分析、家庭和居住安排的概率預測方法研究進(jìn)展、家庭和居住安排概率預測和分析的用戶(hù)友好軟件開(kāi)發(fā)研究進(jìn)展、家庭和居住安排預測/分析與健康老齡化研究、家庭和居住安排分析與老年護理和政策分析、家庭和居住安排預測/分析與可持續發(fā)展研究、未來(lái)家庭和居住安排變化的前景和政策對策等。

時(shí)間：2024年5月9-10日9:00-17:40

地點(diǎn)：北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展院B101報告廳

語(yǔ)言：英文（部分有同傳）

主辦：北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展院健康老齡與發(fā)展研究中心、中國人口與發(fā)展研究中心、新加坡國立大學(xué)家庭與人口研究中心

議程安排

8:45~9:00 Arrival of the participants

9:00~11:00 Opening Ceremony and Session 1 of keynote speeches

Chair: Junjian Yi (Boya Distinguished Professor, National School of Development, Peking University) 

9:00~9:20 Opening Ceremony

Opening remarks by Dandan Zhang (Associate Dean, National School of Development, Peking University)

Brief speeches by:

Wenzhuang Yang (Director General of Department of Population Surveillance and Family Development of National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China);

Dan He (Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)

Qiushi Feng (Associate Professor of Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Deputy Director of Center for Families and Population Research at National University of Singapore)

9:20~11:00; Session 1

Keynote speeches

Frans Willekens (Professor and former Director of Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demography Institute, and Member of Netherlands Royal Academy of Sciences): Issues in Households and Living Arrangements Projections (Online);

Michael Murphy (Professor of Department of Methodology at London School of Economics and Political Science; Member of the British Royal Academy and Member of the British Academy of Social Sciences): Household and Living Arrangement Projections in the United Kingdom Using the Extended Cohort-Component Method -- An application of the ProFamy Methods/software (Online);

David Banks (Professor of the Practice of Statistics, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University): Probabilistic Projections of Households and Home-based Care for the US Elderly (Online);

Junjian Yi (Boya Distinguished Professor, National School of Development, Peking University): Falling Fertility Differentials in China: Incomplete Contract, Filial Piety, and Demand-side Fertility Policies

Open discussions.

11:00~11:10; Group photo

11:10~11:20; Coffee and tea break

11:20~13:00; Section 2

Analyses on the past trends and present statuses of households and living arrangements

Chair: Patama Vapattanawong (Professor, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Thailand)

Aris Ananta (Professor, Department of Economics, Indonesia Universitas; former President of Asian Population Association): Marital Status Transition Matrix in Indonesia;

Leiwen Jiang (Senior research fellow of Population Council in New York, and Director of Asian Population Research Center, Shanghai University): Changes in household size composition and its demographic driving forces;

Milad Bagi (Assistant Professor of Demography, Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University): Past Experiences and Future Directions of Female-Headed Households in Iran;

Shuzhuo Li (Professor of School of Public Policies and Management at Xiaan Jiaotong University): Population Aging and Living Arrangements in Asia: Facts, Observations, and Responses.

Open discussions.

13:00~14:00; Lunch

14:00~15:40; Section 3

Research progress in methodology of probabilistic projections of households and living arrangements

Chair: Leiwen Jiang (Senior research fellow of Population Council in New York, and Director of Asian Population Research Center, Shanghai University)

Yi Zeng (Professor of Peking University and Duke University; Member of The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) for the Advancement of Science in Developing Countries; Foreign member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences): Basis and Ideas of Probabilistic Households and Living Arrangement Projections (PHPs);

Junni Zhang (Associate Professor of National School of Development at Peking University): Bayesian Models and BayesProj R package for Estimating and Probabilistically Projecting Total Marriage Rates and Total Divorce Rates for PHPs;

Wei Tang (Postdoctoral Research Fellow of National School of Development at Peking University): Illustrative Applications of the Bayesian Models to Estimate and Probabilistically Project Total Marriage Rates and Total Divorce Rates for PHPs;

Man Li (Assistant Professor of School of Sociology at Soochow University) and Shanwen Zhu (School of Humanities at Shanghai Institute of Technology): Optimized Random-combinations of Total Fertility Rates and Life Expectancies at Birth for Probabilistic Populations, Households and Living Arrangement Projections.

Open discussions.

15:40~15:55; Coffee and tea break

15:55~17:35; Section 4

Research progress in user-friendly software development for probabilistic projections and analyses of households and living arrangements

Chair:  Wenjiong He (Director of the Center of Social Welfare and Governance, Zhejiang University)

Qiushi Feng (Associate Professor of Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Deputy Director of Center for Families and Population Research at National University of Singapore): Usefulness and Illustrative Applications of User-friendly R Software DemoRates;

Zhenglian Wang (Senior Research Fellow of China Population and Development Research Center): Extensions of ProFamy User-friendly Software by Using the Summary Measures of Total Rates of Marriage/Union Formations and Dissolutions for Probabilistic Households and Living Arrangement Projections (PHPs);

Can Jia (Research Fellow of China Population and Development Research Center): Extend the Outcomes of Three R Packages of UNPD Probabilistic Population Projections Using Bayesian Hierarchical Models from Excluding Rural/urban (or Race) to Rural/urban (or Race)-Specific;

John Bryant (Director, Bayesian Demography Limited): Usefulness and Illustrative Applications of BayesRates R Program for estimating age-specific demographic rates.

Open discussions.

May 10 (Friday)

8:45~9:00: Arrival of the participants

9:00~11:00; Section 5

Households and living arrangement projections/analyses for healthy aging research

Chair: Aris Ananta (Professor, Department of Economics, Indonesia Universitas; former President of Asian Population Association)

Wenjiong He (Director of the Center of Social Welfare and Governance, Zhejiang University): Optimization of Old-age Welfare System based on Intergenerational Equilibrium

Bussarawan Puk Teerawichitchainan (Associate Professor of National University of Singapore): Family Roles in Caring for Older Persons with Long-Term Care Needs in China and Thailand;

Jian Sun (Lecturer, College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University): Association between community care services availability and quality of life among older adults: Evidence from China;

Patama Vapattanawong (Professor, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University): Demographic Situation in the Past Six Decades of Thailand

Lijing Yan (Professor and Head of NCD Research at Global Health Research Center, Duke Kunshan University)：Urban-Rural Disparities and All-cause Mortality Risk among Chinese Old Adults: the Multiple Mediation Effect of Lifestyle Factors and Leisure Activities.

Open discussions.

11:00~11:15; Coffee and tea break

11:15~12:55; Session 6

Analyses on household and living arrangement for old age cares and policy analyses

Chair: Sabahat Hussai (Senior Research Demographer, Program Analyst, ThinkWell Global)

Xuxi Zhang (Assistant Professor, School of Public Health, Peking University Medical Center): Development and Validation of Physical Disability Index and Mental Disability Index and their Associations with Falls among Older Adults;

Xian Zhang (Research Fellow, Duke Kunshan University)：Long-Term Care Insurance Promoted the Diagnosis and Management of Hypertension in Older Adults;

Jianxin Li (Professor, Department of Sociology, Peking University): Analysis of Low Fertility Levels in China;

Yao Yao (Associate Research Fellow of China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University Medical Center): Characteristics of and Enlightenment for Older Care in China: from the Perspective of Family Structure Changes.

Open discussions.

12:55~13:55; Lunch

13:55~15:35; Session 7

Households and living arrangement projections/analyses and sustainable development research

Chair: Shuzhuo Li (Professor of School of Public Policies and Management at Xiaan Jiaotong University)

Sabahat Hussain (Senior Research Demographer, Program Analyst, ThinkWell Global) and Maqsood Sadiq (Senior Research and Data Analyst, Population Council, Islamabad, Pakistan): Updates on the Projections and analyses of Households and Living Arrangements for Pakistan;

Xiuli Liu (Professor and Director, Economic Analysis and Forecasting Science Research Lab, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences): Aging Population, Balanced Diet and China’s Grain Demand;

Augusto Schmidt (Research Associate, Campinas State University, Brazil): Household and Living Arrangements Projections for Brazil (2010-2030);

Sihan Ji (Associate Professor Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University): Green Space and Functional Aging in China: Community and Cohort Studies;

Open discussions.

15:35~15:50; Coffee and tea break

15:50~17:30; Section 8

Perspective of changes in households and living arrangements in the future years and policy responses

Chair: Xuying Zhang (Associate Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)

Nguyen Duc Vinh (Institute of Sociology, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences): Projection of Household Living Arrangements in Vietnam to 2049;

Jiye Hu (Professor/Director, Department of Finance, Business School, China University of Political Science and Law): International experience in establishing a birth support policy system;

Premchand Dommaraju (Associate Professor, Division of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)：Transformations in Indian Household Structures;

Xinyan Cheng (Postdoctoral Fellow, Institute of Aging, Fudan University): A Microsimulation Study of the 8-4-2-n Families in China based on Agent-based Modeling.

Open discussions.

17:30~17:40; Closing remarks by Xuying Zhang (Associate Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)


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