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趙波教授的合作論文《Flight to Housing in China》被宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域頂級期刊Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control接受發(fā)表

發(fā)布日期：2021-06-29 02:56    來(lái)源：

北大國發(fā)院趙波教授的合作論文《Flight to Housing in China》被宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域頂級期刊Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control接受發(fā)表。該論文與清華大學(xué)的董豐教授、上海交通大學(xué)許志偉教授和上海對外經(jīng)貿大學(xué)劉建豐教授合著(zhù)。

文章利用CFPS 2010-2018的微觀(guān)數據發(fā)現首次發(fā)現不確定性與房?jì)r(jià)的正相關(guān)的證據：家庭持久收入沖擊的不確定性增長(cháng)較快的地區，房地產(chǎn)均價(jià)上升也較快。文章在此基礎上構建了一個(gè)包含異質(zhì)性家庭的兩部門(mén)（房地產(chǎn)部門(mén)、實(shí)體經(jīng)濟部門(mén)）的不完全市場(chǎng)一般均衡模型來(lái)解釋這一現象。房產(chǎn)作為價(jià)值儲藏的手段，可以幫助家庭抵御風(fēng)險免受流動(dòng)性約束的限制。增加的不確定性增加了住房需求、抬高了房?jì)r(jià)，并擠出了實(shí)體經(jīng)濟投資，最終導致產(chǎn)出下降和經(jīng)濟衰退。他們還定量的分析了政府限購政策對于經(jīng)濟的一般均衡影響。他們的研究發(fā)現這樣的限制措施有效的降低了房?jì)r(jià)，但居民持有的安全資產(chǎn)變少了，因而削弱了居民對于風(fēng)險分散的能力。這就要求制定地產(chǎn)調控措施的時(shí)候同樣重視房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供給端的調節作用，提高政府的土地供給效率，進(jìn)一步完善金融市場(chǎng)，特別是基金和債券市場(chǎng)，豐富安全資產(chǎn)的種類(lèi)，進(jìn)一步支持實(shí)體經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。

英文摘要：We empirically detect the flight to safety vis-a-vis housing in China: Great economic uncertainty causes the prices of housing assets to soar. To stabilize housing prices, China has imposed purchase restrictions on the housing market. We study the aggregate and distributional effects of this housing policy by developing a two-sector model with heterogeneous households. An uncertainty shock generates a countercyclical housing boom by shifting outward households' demand for housing as a store of value. A vibrant housing sector then leads to an economic recession by crowding out resources that could have been allocated to the real sector. Our quantitative analysis suggests that the policy limiting housing purchases effectively curb surging housing prices. However, the policy restricts households' access to housing that can be used to buffer idiosyncratic uncertainties, creating a larger consumption dispersion. Consequently, the housing policy creates a trade-off between macro-level stability and micro-level consumption risk sharing.

論文下載 ../../docs/20210629145708680365.pdf