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美國次貸危機是典型的政府失敗

發(fā)布日期：2008-10-13 01:30    來(lái)源：北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院

“新制度主義時(shí)代”網(wǎng)站  薛兆豐

既是因為忙著(zhù)其他事情，也是因為不相信太陽(yáng)下有新事，依然對所謂的“次貸危機”提不起特別興趣，但因為日前回答朋友提問(wèn)說(shuō)過(guò)幾句（詳見(jiàn)這里），所以有必要根據新情報，作扼要的跟進(jìn)。

次貸危機是典型的政府失敗，而不是什么市場(chǎng)失敗或資本主義失敗。那兩家要破產(chǎn)的公司，名字起得花里胡哨，叫Fannie Mae和Freddie Mac，好像個(gè)私人公司，好像代表市場(chǎng)。其實(shí)，Fannie Mae是Federal National Mortgage Association（聯(lián)邦全國按揭聯(lián)會(huì )），而Freddie Mac則是Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation（聯(lián)邦家庭貸款按揭公司），兩者均為所謂GSEs（government-sponsored enterprises），即“政府資助企業(yè)”。那么，政府資助企業(yè)的失敗，要政府再出一筆錢(qián)來(lái)救，屬于市場(chǎng)失敗還是政府失敗？

再根本的原因，是政府為了讓更多人擁有自己的房子，刻意從制度上拔高，迫使私人銀行放寬購房貸款的信貸審核條件，而讓“政府資助企業(yè)”來(lái)承諾購買(mǎi)那些高風(fēng)險的債券，而當經(jīng)濟出現下滑，無(wú)法償還貸款的個(gè)案劇增，就使得這些“政府資助企業(yè)”以及由此波及的私人金融機構陷入危機。

威廉斯（W. E. Williams）教授日前寫(xiě)道（詳見(jiàn)這里）：

從1977年的“社區重建法案”開(kāi)始，……國會(huì )就開(kāi)始威脅銀行和其他金融機構，要他們向高風(fēng)險的住房買(mǎi)家和企業(yè)發(fā)放更多貸款，這些貸款就稱(chēng)為次級貸款。這些銀行和金融機構得到的甜頭是，“政府資助企業(yè)”Fannie Mae和Freddie Mac將會(huì )購買(mǎi)這些高風(fēng)險的債券。任何腦子重量超過(guò)一盎司的人都能明白，這是釀造災難的配方，可國會(huì )卻齊聲否認。

Starting with the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, that was given more teeth during the Clinton administration, Congress started intimidating banks and other financial institutions into making loans, so-called subprime loans, to high-risk homebuyers and businesses. The carrot offered was that these high-risk loans would be purchased by the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Anyone with an ounce of brains would have known that this was a prescription for disaster but there was a congressional chorus of denial.

羅伯斯（Russ Roberts）教授則指出，現在政府出來(lái)救，出的錢(qián)其實(shí)不算很多，所以最大的問(wèn)題不在這筆錢(qián)的數目上，而在于給出了一個(gè)先例，給人一個(gè)信號說(shuō)“你做錯了不要緊，后面還有政府來(lái)兜底，用不著(zhù)太擔心風(fēng)險”，而這才是最大的“代價(jià)”和“非常可怕的錯誤”。見(jiàn)這里（尤其是第3分30秒到5分16秒）。

更早地，在梅森大學(xué)的馬凱特斯中心（Mercatus Center，我以前翻譯作“市場(chǎng)研究中心”）工作的梅森經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士Jay Cochran，與在Cato工作的Catherine England，在2001年就撰寫(xiě)過(guò)長(cháng)篇研究報告，指出“政府資助企業(yè)”Fannie Mae和Freddie Mac帶來(lái)的隱患并建議對這兩家公司作私有化處理（見(jiàn)這里）。

最新的，經(jīng)濟學(xué)家萊博維茨（Stan J. Liebowitz）也撰寫(xiě)了一篇長(cháng)文，指出次貸危機是政府多年來(lái)刻意推低購房貸款標準造成的（詳見(jiàn)這里）：

This report concludes that, in an attempt to increase home ownership, particularly by minorities and the less affl uent, virtually every branch of the government undertook an attack on underwriting standards starting in the early 1990s. Regulators, academic specialists, GSEs, and housing activists universally praised the decline in mortgage-underwriting standards as an “innovation” in mortgage lending. This weakening of underwriting standards succeeded in increasing home ownership and also the price of housing, helping to lead to a housing price bubble. The price bubble, along with relaxed lending standards, allowed speculators to purchase homes without putting their own money at risk. The recent rise in foreclosures is not related empirically to the distinction between subprime and prime loans since both sustained the same percentage increase of foreclosures and at the same time. Nor is it consistent with the “nasty subprime lender” hypothesis currently considered to be the cause of the mortgage meltdown. Instead, the important factor is the distinction between adjustable-rate and fi xed-rate mortgages. This evidence is consistent with speculators turning and running when housing prices stopped rising.

要救就救吧，但不要說(shuō)這是政府的成功拯救市場(chǎng)的失敗。這是政府用納稅人的錢(qián)拯救政府的失敗。